After hemorrhaging around 625,000 subscribers in the second quarter of 2015, pay-TV operators should report far more moderate declines in this year's Q2 period, Evercore predicts.
In a note to its investor clients sent Wednesday, the firm projects video subscriber losses of around 520,000 for the second quarter, which is typically the industry's worst for customer trends.
In 2015, Evercore said, "non-operating issues" such as the failed Comcast-Time Warner Cable merger, and AT&T's closing on DirecTV, "demanded operators' focus."
Despite cable's recent resurgence in the video customer area, Evercore estimates that the sector lost around 261,000 pay-TV customers in the second quarter, led by Comcast (a projected loss of 35,000 and "pro forma" Charter (estimated loss of 60,000 subs).
Evercore believes continued gains by DirecTV (up 120,000 subs, the company estimates) will come at the expense of U-verse (down 165,000).
Distracted by its strike, meanwhile, Evercore projects Verizon lost around 30,000 FiOS video users in the quarter.
Evercore, meanwhile, estimates continued gains for Dish's IP-based Sling TV platform. After adding a projected 179,000 users in the first quarter, Evercore believes the virtual pay-TV service tacked on another 129,000 in the second quarter.
Evercore projects that Dish lost another 200,000 users for its core satellite service in Q2.
- read this Evercore investor note
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