Part 2: TV sets, net neutrality rage on in 2011

<< Return to Part 1

3. Set-top boxes and connected TVs

Ask any subscriber about the set-top box, and you'll get profanity laced diatribe. It's ugly and hard to work; it negates the features of Internet-connected TVs and games devices; it doesn't link to the Internet and YouTube and Facebook and all the fun things that would look great on television.

2010 concluded with revelations about a four-tuner, do-everything Comcast box being built by Pace and pushed through the FCC. It's an indication that the set-top box will not only be around in 2011, but will be positioned as a cornerstone of the home entertainment center.

CE manufacturers have always tried to put their brands in front of the audience and have always painted cable as the evil empire blocking the features of their televisions and VCRs. This year won't be any different as "connected TVs," devices that connect directly to the Internet (provided by the cable companies, of course) will dominate the early landscape. They'll be joined by over-the-top set-tops like the Boxee Box or maybe Logitech's Google TV or Apple TV, all aimed at grabbing cable viewers and pulling them away from the traditional cable set-top box.

Many would claim that set-tops are not cable's friends and that operators side with consumers when they diss the devices. The problem is, set-tops are the gateways to cable's wealth of programming and services. The solution could be something as simple as a user interface that--here's a shocker for the techie types that provide cable with its equipment--is actually user-friendly.

"With an improved UI I think the consumer gets significant benefit from the existing product that we offer today and in addition to that has the online capability as well," said Charter's Lovett.

There is one other alternative: AllVid, the ongoing effort by the FCC to replace the ongoing failure that is the CableCARD and make consumer electronics relevant again. It's not something to hold your breath about.

"AllVid is fundamentally no different than the failed CableCARD regime," said study co-author and Phoenix Center President Lawrence J. Spiwak, in a news release damning the FCC's supposedly consumer-friendly effort. "By ignoring fundamental economic realities, the Commission is once again unnecessarily imposing significant costs on consumers in the name of promoting 'innovation.'"

4. Net neutrality

The year 2010 began with Comcast winning a court battle with the FCC over the way that organization can regulate the Internet. It ended with the Commission pushing a watered-down, still controversial net neutrality plan through a divided organization facing political pressure from all sides.

The Dec. 21 vote in favor of a net neutrality plan that imposes some restrictions on Internet providers--as long as they offer wireline services--but essentially allows the space to roam free and open is hardly a done deal. The mid-term elections guaranteed that. A new Congress with a sharp focus on how the FCC runs and what it does with any number of new broadband-related issues plans to have an impact on any trends that carry over from 2010 and, to be sure, net neutrality is a carry-over.

Even those within the Commission who worked throughout the year to get service providers to support the plan only offered their own lukewarm endorsement. "The item we will vote on tomorrow is not the one I would have crafted," FCC Commissioner Michael Copps said in a statement. "While I cannot vote wholeheartedly to approve the item, I will not block it by voting against it."

Does that sound like an issue that's been laid to rest?

5. Comcast-NBC Universal

By all accounts--at least accounts coming from Comcast--this issue of the merger between the cable giant and NBC Universal and what it will mean to the entire cable space should have been resolved in 2010. After all, it started in 2009. Now, despite indications that the FCC is finally ready to apply a conditional stamp of approval, it appears that the effort by the industry's largest MSO to spend $30 billion or so for one of the Big Four broadcast networks and its cable properties will drag into 2011 where the spotlight will be on how Comcast integrates what thus far appears to be an alien culture into its own and how Hollywood reacts to the cynical Philadelphia attitude Comcast brings to the glitterati.

So where does Comcast-NBCU stand? The same place it stood on Jan. 1, 2010--with government bodies that have been barraged by complaints against, some self-serving others legitimate and well-paid lobbyists in favor of a deal that would at once create a merged content provider/service provider the likes of which hasn't been seen since the notorious AOL Time Warner entity was mutated into life.

Before settling down for a long holiday weekend, the FCC took some action--albeit not exactly what Comcast Chairman-CEO Brian Roberts would have liked. Chairman Julius Genachowski circulated an order on the proposed Comcast-NBCU transaction that stated, "on balance," that the transaction "meets the public interest standard."

For those not conversant in government lingo, that means that Genachowski has tentatively approved the deal and begun initial discussions with other Commissioners prior to calling for a vote. Of course an FCC staffer, speaking on background, declined to offer a timeline for ultimate approval noting it's not on a public meeting schedule at present.

And those are the top five trends from 2010 that promise to carry over into 2011. Others that just missed the list: 3DTV, whole-home connectivity, targeted advertising, faster broadband speeds, switched digital video, and perhaps one that really bears the most watching, improved emphasis on customer service.

Should be an interesting year, eh?